Review of panel price trends in 2024

Looking back at 2024, the global panel market has experienced a complex fluctuation cycle, and the upstream and downstream of the industrial chain are facing multiple challenges such as supply and demand imbalance, market demand changes, and the external macro environment. From the rise in panel prices caused by material shortages and low inventories at the beginning of the year, to the slowdown in the mid-year due to the early release of demand and the lower than expected mid-year promotions such as 618, to the stabilization of prices supported by China's trade-in policy at the end of the year, various factors have intertwined to form a picture of the development of the panel industry in 2024. Under the continued influence of the "trade-in" policy, panel prices are expected to grow again at the beginning of 2025. The first half of 2024: strong rally, panel volume and price rise In the first half of 2024, LCD panel prices ushered in a significant upward cycle, and the main drivers of this trend include the tight supply of upstream materials due to the earthquake in Japan at the beginning of the year, the low inventory level of panel factories due to production cuts and equipment maintenance, and the increased stocking demand of end brands. For example, the price of television (TV) panels has fully recovered since February and increased in March. Display (MNT) and notebook (NB) panels have also been driven by the price increase of TV panels, with some sizes such as 23.8-inch and 27-inch IPS products showing an upward trend since April. Despite this, there are still certain limitations to the recovery of the panel market in the first half of 2024. Due to the early demand, the willingness of brands to stock up began to weaken in May. 6month,618The effect of mid-year promotion activities such as 618 is not as expected,It also makes brand customers unable to expand and continue the panel procurement momentum of the previous months in the short term,The price of TV panels of various sizes turned flat。 Panel prices reached the highest level in the first half of the year in June, which was also the highest in two years. Take the TV panel as an example, the price of a 65-inch panel is $178, the price of a 55-inch panel is $130, the price of a 43-inch panel is $65, and the price of a 32-inch panel is $37. 2024 TV panel price trend In terms of display panels, the prices of 27-inch and 23.8-inch IPS panels have reached highs in recent years, at $63.1 and $49.7 respectively; In terms of notebook panels, the 14-inch and 11.6-inch TN panels have also reached highs in recent years, at $26.9 and $25.1 respectively, while the 17.3-inch TN panel and 15.6-inch Value IPS panel have been stable at $38.3 and $40.4 for a long time. The second half of 2024: panel prices fell, and the national subsidy policy stabilized the price trend Entering the second half of the year, panel prices gradually shifted from rising to flat or even downward. Among them, in the third quarter, the demand for TV panels weakened significantly, and the prices of most sizes continued to decline, especially large-size panels were under the dual pressure of weakening demand and slowing international brand procurement. After a continuous decline, in September, the price of TV panels came to the lowest point in the second half of the year, with a 65-inch panel price of $171, a 55-inch panel price of $124, a 43-inch panel price of $63, and a 32-inch panel price of $34;

Affected by the decline in the price of TV panels, and the inventory of display panels in the hands of brand customers has reached the satisfaction point, the price of display panels also declined in the third quarter. The price of notebook panels remains stable under the stable rhythm of purchase and shipment between buyers and sellers. However, with the release of China's trade-in subsidy policy in September, the implementation of production reduction operations by panel manufacturers, and the significant increase in demand for super-sized TV panels, TV panel prices stopped falling and stabilized in the fourth quarter. According to TrendForce data, the price of TV panels of 65 inches and above rose slightly in December. On the other hand, due to the traditional off-season, the prices of monitors and laptop panels have declined, but in the face of the potential risks brought about by the US tariff adjustment in 2025, brand owners will start stocking in December in advance, and panel prices will stop falling. The national subsidy policy continues, and the panel price will rise in the first quarter of 2025? On the whole, compared with 2023, driven by internal and external factors such as the market, policies, and corporate production control, panel prices will rise as a whole in 2024, which also makes the panel industry gradually recover. Judging from the previous 2024 performance reports released by panel companies such as TCL Technology, LG Display, BOE, AUO, and Shenzhen Tianma, in the past year, the performance of panel companies has improved well compared with 2023:

In terms of display panels, the prices of 27-inch and 23.8-inch IPS panels have reached highs in recent years, at $63.1 and $49.7 respectively; In terms of notebook panels, the 14-inch and 11.6-inch TN panels have also reached highs in recent years, at $26.9 and $25.1 respectively, while the 17.3-inch TN panel and 15.6-inch Value IPS panel have been stable at $38.3 and $40.4 for a long time.

The second half of 2024: panel prices fell, and the national subsidy policy stabilized the price trend

Entering the second half of the year, panel prices gradually shifted from rising to flat or even downward trend. Among them, in the third quarter, the demand for TV panels weakened significantly, and the prices of most sizes continued to decline, especially large-size panels were under the dual pressure of weakening demand and slowing international brand procurement.

After a continuous decline, in September, the price of TV panels came to the lowest point in the second half of the year, with a 65-inch panel price of $171, a 55-inch panel price of $124, a 43-inch panel price of $63, and a 32-inch panel price of $34;

Affected by the decline in the price of TV panels, and the inventory of display panels in the hands of brand customers has reached the satisfaction point, the price of display panels also declined in the third quarter. The price of notebook panels remains stable under the stable rhythm of purchase and shipment between buyers and sellers.

However, with the release of China's trade-in subsidy policy in September, the implementation of production reduction operations by panel manufacturers, and the significant increase in demand for super-sized TV panels, TV panel prices stopped falling and stabilized in the fourth quarter. According to TrendForce data, the price of TV panels of 65 inches and above rose slightly in December.

On the other hand, due to the traditional off-season, the prices of monitors and laptop panels have declined, but in the face of the potential risks brought about by the US tariff adjustment in 2025, brand owners will start stocking in December in advance, and panel prices will stop falling.

The national subsidy policy continues, and the panel price will rise in the first quarter of 2025?

On the whole, compared with 2023, driven by internal and external factors such as the market, policies, and corporate production control, panel prices will rise as a whole in 2024, which also makes the panel industry gradually recover. Judging from the previous 2024 performance reports released by panel companies such as TCL Technology, LG Display, BOE, AUO, and Shenzhen Tianma, in the past year, the performance of panel companies has improved well compared with 2023:

TCL Technology expects that the company's semiconductor display business will grow significantly in 2024, and the annual net profit will exceed 6 billion yuan. Benefiting from the balanced production and sales on the supply side and the impact of domestic consumption promotion activities, the prices of major products showed seasonal narrow fluctuations, and the annual average price maintained a steady increase. LG Display will achieve a consolidated annual revenue of 26.6 trillion won (equivalent to about 134.6 billion yuan) in 2024, and a net profit loss of about 2.56 trillion won (equivalent to about 12.788 billion yuan), narrowing the loss of about 171 billion won from the previous year; Visionox expects annual revenue of 7.7 billion yuan to 8 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 29.94% to 35.00%, and the net profit loss attributable to the parent company will narrow. Among them, the gross profit margin of OLED products increased by more than 30 percentage points over the same period last year; AUO's cumulative revenue in 2024 will be approximately NT$280.278 billion (equivalent to approximately RMB 62.334 billion), representing a year-on-year increase of 13.03%; Innolux's full-year revenue in 2024 will be NT$216.510 billion (equivalent to approximately RMB 48.238 billion), an increase of 2.25% year-on-year; BOE expects that in 2024, the company will achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of 5.2 billion yuan to 5.5 billion yuan, an increase of 104%-116% over the same period last year; Shenzhen Tianma expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 2024 of -650 million yuan to -750 million yuan, an improvement of 64.24% - 69.01% over the same period of last year; TPV Technology said that in 2024, although the company's profit level has declined, it will record double growth in terms of overall shipment scale and revenue, and its operational competitiveness will be enhanced; Longteng Optoelectronics expects to achieve a net profit attributable to the parent company of -205 million yuan to -175 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 73.4165 million yuan to 103 million yuan compared with the same period last year, a year-on-year decrease of 26.37% to 37.14%. Looking forward to the beginning of 2025, panel prices are expected to continue to maintain growth momentum, and panel companies are also expected to continue to usher in performance recovery in the first quarter. Fan Boyu, vice president of research at TrendForce, previously said that in January 2025, with the continuation of the trade-in policy in China, the demand for TV stocking will be stable, and the demand for super-large panels will be even hotter. Therefore, on January 20, TrendForce announced panel prices for January 2025, showing that the demand for TV panels is hot and prices are rising. Prices for monitors and laptop panels were flat. According to TrendForce's February 2025 panel price forecast, the demand for TV panels is expected to be stable in February, and the price increase trend will continue. After the display panel entered February, the demand became stronger month by month; Laptop panel prices are flat.

Fan Boyu said,The domestic trade-in policy allows most TV brand customers to maintain strong purchasing momentum from the fourth quarter of last year to the first quarter of this year,In addition, the advance stocking for the implementation of U.S. tariffs has offset the impact of tariffs in a short period of time,Therefore, TV panel prices are expected to continue to receive rising support。 Under the capacity crowding effect caused by the increase in demand for TV panels, the demand for display panels is also gradually increasing, and the overall shipments in the first quarter are likely to increase by 0.5% compared with the fourth quarter of last year, and the price is also rising; Laptop panel demand is still in the traditional off-season cycle, and the overall demand is expected to decrease by 5.5% in the first quarter compared with the fourth quarter of last year. Looking forward to 2025 and beyond, what other factors will affect the supply and demand of terminal TVs, monitors, and notebooks, and what impact will they have on the panel industry? On February 26 and 27, 2025, LEDinside and WitsView, both subsidiaries of TrendForce, will hold a two-day TrendForce New Display Industry Symposium 2025 (DTS 2025) at JW Marriott Hotel Shenzhen. At that time, industry experts and senior analysts will conduct an in-depth analysis of the latest market conditions and development trends of the micro, small and medium-sized and ultra-large display industries, and crack the latest trends of the display industry. (Text: WitsView Irving)